Examiner.com
12 November 2011
Almost one month after a 15-seat Moremi Air Services 1996 Cessna 208B Grand Caravan registration A2-AKD, serial number 208B-0582, went down about 1:55 p.m. Central Africa Time (CAT) on Friday, October 14, 2011 while on a chartered flight in the Okavango Delta of Botswana in Southern Africa, shortly after taking off from Xakanaxa Airstrip, a dirt runway some 25 minutes by air from Maun Airport (MUB), to Pom Pom Camp Airstrip, killing the British pilot, Martin Gresswell, and 7 passengers, an
apparent wall of silence has descended over the fatal accident.
This article sheds new light on that event, making use of original investigative reporting from official and confidential private sources that have come forward with details about this tragedy. There is also an enhanced slide show which accompanies this report.
Attempting to breach that information vacuum, we contacted Mark Sampson, chairman of the board of the Civil Aviation Authority of Botswana (CAAB) , Oganne Maroba, CEO of the CAAB, Joseph Ebineng, CAAB airworthiness inspector, CAAB board members Pro Keebine and Tony Rees, John Mynhardt, the owner of Moremi Air Services, the charter airline's operations manager Sue Smart, and editors of the independent press in Botswana, including The Sunday Standard, The Botswana Gazette Online, The Monitor, and Norman Chandler, owner The Ngami Times.
With the exception of a reply from Mr. Sampson, and an acknowledgement from Gobusamang Keebine at the Botswana Confederation of Commerce, Industry and Manpower (BOCCIM), all others ignored our inquiries.
Mr. Sampson pointed out that the CAAB is the regulating authority in Botswana and as such cannot be involved in the actual investigation of this accident. He further stated, "According to the Civil Aviation Act of 2011 which came into force one month ago, the Ministry of Transport & Communications is responsible for all accident investigation."
As advised, we contacted the Ministry of Transport & Communication's accident investigation branch, but have not received a reply from that agency.
A respected London based aviation attorney, who is also a helicopter pilot, James Healy-Pratt, head of the Aviation Law Department of Stewarts Law LLP commented as follows, saying "Overloading these aircraft has been an issue in some safari based operations. Competent operators will be acutely aware of the performance limitations as well as weight and balance issues."
Mr. Healy-Pratt added, "There has been much speculation about the possible causes. Options following EFATO (Engine Failure at Take Off) are limited, but competent pilots would generally not attempt a turn back to the strip due to stall dangers."
The attorney also told us that they are attempting to confirm that Moremi Air Services has aviation insurance underwritten by Lloyd's of London, and that such coverage is not limited to $100,000 in US dollars per seat. He further commented that it is unlikely that any authorities in Botswana would be forthcoming with useful information.
Other sources in Botswana have been more helpful. Several commercial pilots have contacted us with details about this accident, with the understanding of providing this information anonymously.
A common accusation is that the Cessna 208B Grand Caravan (A2-AKD), which was apparently originally registered in the Republic of South Africa (RSA) as ZS-JML, was overloaded.
As one of these commercial pilots stated, "In Botswana, Caravans configured for bush operations typically weigh 5200 pounds empty. October is the hottest month of the year. The day in question was the first really hot day of the summer. It would be reasonable to assume that at 2:00 p.m. local time it was 40 degrees Celsius, or 104 degrees Fahrenheit."
"The payload on board was 11 passengers plus 1 pilot. I have yet to talk to any pilot who would take this payload out of Xakanaxa. Personally I would never contemplate this in winter. Most companies in Botswana have a luggage allowance of 20kg. This means that the total payload was likely in the region of 2,409 pounds."
"Based on the planned routing Xakanaxa to Pom Pom to Maun, the expected fuel on board was likely in the region of 800 pounds on take off from Xakanaxa, it is possible it could have been less, but most pilots would be comfortable with that amount."
"The (estimated) total weight of the aircraft on take off was 8,520 pounds, or 3,864.6 Kg, Maximum All Up Weight (MAUW)."
"If you look at the performance tables for a Cessna 208B at 40 degrees Celsius, 8,300 pounds would use a take off roll that requires 790 meters or 2,591.8 feet to clear a 50-foot obstacle. An 8,750 pounds MAUW would use a take off roll that requires 911 meters or 2,988.8 feet to clear the same 50-foot obstacle in still air conditions."
"There are a lot of high Mopane trees at each end of the strip, which is listed in the aeronautical information publication of Botswana as being 850 meters long, or 2,788.7 feet. The wind was, I am told, a cross wind. The mathematics of this says in all probability this take off was doomed to fail."
Others have raised questions about the mopane trees themselves, citing them as a hazard. There is an allegation that air charter operators in Maun complained years ago about these mopane trees and asked to have them removed but the Department of Wildlife and National Parks (DWNP) refused their request.
Finally, there are published statements on the Professional Pilots Rumour Network (PPRuNe), as well as private accusations to the effect that Moremi Air Services allegedly had a reputation to overload their aircraft and emphasized profitability over safety.
We asked the CAAB for a record of all aircraft accidents or incidents investigated during the past 10 years involving Moremi Air Services. Our request was refused.
We asked the CAAB and other official sources in Botswana for proof that Moremi Air Services issued tickets to all the passengers on the fatal Cessna Grand Caravan flight. Our request was ignored.
In fact, we asked a total of 25 basic questions to the CAAB involving the aircraft flight manifest, temperature, wind, and weather conditions, the identities of the victims and survivors, the reason for having two officials from the Department of Road Transport and Safety (DRTS) assigned to the task of inspecting Moremi Air Services vehicles, and a number of other questions to confirm already published facts. All but one of our questions was ignored.
Apparently, official sources in Botswana, included the so-called independent press, consider this tragedy as sensitive to the tourist industry of their country.
It is unprecedented that almost one full month after an air crash, the names of all passengers, including both victims and survivors, have not been released.
This is contrary to our experience in dealings with the National Transportation Safety Board in accidents under their jurisdiction. We have previously been able to contact field investigators of the NTSB to verify basic facts, and have pertinent questions answered.
While some degree of restrictions to information can be expected in official accident investigations, most jurisdictions strive for transparency, as a means of enhancing openness and trust, and even provide interim briefings on the progress of their inquiries. Unfortunately, that appears to be lacking in this tragedy.
We continue to extend our sincere condolences to the family, friends, and colleagues of those who perished, but firmly believe that an appropriate way to honor their memories, avoid a recurrence of this incident, and provide confidence to anyone who might consider traveling with Moremi Air Services or other carriers in Botswana, would be an open and full disclosure of all facts relating to this accident.